Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)
€
The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4875 level and was capped around the $1.4760 level. The common currency continues to inch towards the psychologically-important $1.50 figure and the U.S. dollar it now at its weakest level since before the Lehman bankruptcy. Data released in the eurozone today saw French September consumer prices decline 0.2% after climbing 0.5% last month, and were off 0.4% y/y. Also, the German ZEW economic expectations index declined for the first time in four months, falling 1.7 points to 56.0 points. The German media is reporting the German government will revise its latest economic forecast on Friday and an upward revision to a contraction of -4.5% is possible, up from -6.0%. There is speculation the German economy may have grown 1% y/y. Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke was on the wire last week saying interest rates will need to eventually move higher but most Fed-watchers believe the Fed will keep rates unchanged for several months. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.4445 level.
¥/ CNY
The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥89.45 level and was capped around the ¥90.20 level. Data released in Japan today saw September bank lending up 1.6% y/y while the September M3 money supply was up 2.2% y/y. Asian monetary authorities intervened last week by buying U.S. dollars. Most traders believe Bank of Japan will keep interest rates unchanged for months and the major question is when the central bank will end its emergency lending programs. The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.60% to close at ¥10,076.56. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥94.75 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥133.25 level and was supported around the ¥132.55 level. The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥142.20 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥87.80 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar weakened vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8222 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8211. Chinese officials have recently indicated they will stimulate domestic final private demand to reduce China’s dependence on foreign trade.
₤
The British pound appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.5850 level and was supported around the $1.5705 level. The European Commission today granted the U.K. permission to extend its temporary bank support programs through the end of the year. Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Posen reported “There are still problems out there in the banking system. It is possible we will have another banking sector-led problem in the U.S. and elsewhere." Data released in the U.K. today saw September retail sales up 2.8% y/y while the DCLG house price index was off 5.6% in August. Also, September consumer price inflation fell to 1.1% from 1.6% in August and was unchanged m/m. The annual decline represented the weakest rate in seven years. These data render it likely the MPC will keep its easy monetary policy unchanged for some time. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5640 level. The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ₤0.9410 level and was supported around the ₤0.9345 level.
Technical Outlook at 1230 GMT (EDT + 0400)
(Bid Price) (Today’s Intraday Range)
EUR/ USD 1.4833 1.4876, 1.4761
USD/ JPY 89.70 90.18, 89.44
GBP/ USD 1.5818 1.5827, 1.5706
USD/ CHF 1.0227 1.0277, 1.0192
AUD/USD 0.9081 0.9125, 0.9040
USD/CAD 1.0317 1.0367, 1.0264
NZD/USD 0.7364 0.7414, 0.7325
EUR/ JPY 133.12 133.24, 132.52
EUR/ GBP 0.9369 0.9411, 0.9345
GBP/ JPY 142.03 142.21, 141.16
CHF/ JPY 87.71 87.81, 87.33
Support Resistance Support Resistance
EUR/ USD
L1. 1.4470
L2. 1.4355
L3. 1.4175
GBP/ USD
L1. 1.6115
L2. 1.5720
L3. 1.5405
AUD/ USD
L1. 0.8450
L2. 0.8300
L3. 0.8070
NZD/ USD
L1. 0.6880
L2. 0.6750
L3. 0.6535
EUR/ GBP
L1. 0.8795
L2. 0.8675
L3. 0.8320
GBP/ JPY
L1. 146.10
L2. 142.05
L3. 135.70
SCHEDULE
Tuesday, 13 October 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A Japan Bank of Japan Policy Board interest rate decision
0130 Australia September NAB business confidence (18)
0130 Australia September NAB business conditions (4)
0645 France September consumer price index (0.5% m/m)
0645 France September consumer price index (-0.2% y/y)
0645 France September CPI, harmonized (-0.2% y/y)
0645 France August current account (-€1.2 billion)
0715 CH September producer and import prices (0.1% m/m)
0715 CH September producer and import prices (-5.5% y/y)
0830 UK September consumer price index (0.4% m/m)
0830 UK September consumer price index (1.6% y/y)
0830 UK September RPIX (1.4% y/y)
0830 UK August DCLG house prices (-8.3% y/y)
0900 Germany October ZEW survey, economic sentiment (57.7)
0900 Germany October ZEW survey, current situation (-74.0)
0900 Eurozone October ZEW survey, economic sentiment (59.6)
1230 Canada August international merchandise trade (-C$ 1.4 billion)
1230 Canada August new house price index (0.3% m/m)
1700 US Federal Reserve Governor Kohn speaks
Wednesday, 14 October 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0000 Australia October Westpac consumer confidence (5.2%)
0000 Australia Q3 NAB business confidence (-4)
N/A Japan September Tokyo department store sales (-10.3% y/y)
N/A Japan September nationwide department store sales (-8.8% y/y)
0830 UK September retail price index (0.5% m/m)
0830 UK September jobless claims, net change (24,400)
0830 UK September claimant count rate (5.0%)
0830 UK August ILO unemployment (7.9%)
0830 UK August average earnings (1.7%)
0830 UK August manufacturing unit wage cost (4.3%)
0900 Eurozone August industrial production (-0.3% m/m)
0900 Eurozone August industrial production (-15.9% y/y)
1100 US MBA mortgage applications
1230 US September retail sales (2.7%)
1230 US September retail sales, ex-autos (1.1%)
1230 US September import price index (2.0% m/m)
1230 US September import price index (-15.0% y/y)
1400 US August business inventories (-1.0%)
1800 US Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes
2145 NZ Q3 consumer price index (0.6% q/q)
2145 NZ Q3 consumer price index (1.9% y/y)
2145 NZ September food prices (-0.9% m/m)
2330 Australia Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens speaks
Thursday, 15 October 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0100 Australia October consumer inflation expectations (3.5%)
0400 Italy Bank of Italy quarterly economic bulletin
0430 Japan August industrial production
0430 Japan August capacity utilization (3.9% m/m)
0500 Japan Bank of Japan monthly report
0800 Italy September consumer price index
0800 Eurozone October European Central Bank monthly report
0900 Eurozone September CPI (0.3% m/m)
0900 Eurozone September CPI (-0.2% y/y)
0900 Eurozone September CPI (1.3% y/y)
0900 CH October ZEW survey, expectations (58)
1230 US September consumer price index (0.4% m/m)
1230 US September consumer price index (-1.5% y/y)
1230 US September CPI, ex-food and energy (0.1% m/m)
1230 US September CPI, ex-food and energy (1.4% y/y)
1230 US October Empire manufacturing index (18.88)
1230 US Weekly initial jobless claims
1230 US Continuing jobless claims
1230 Canada August manufacturing shipments (5.5% m/m)
1400 US October Philadelphia Fed index (14.1)
Friday, 16 October 2009
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0715 CH August retail sales
0800 Italy August trade balance
0900 Eurozone August trade balance (€12.6 billion)
0905 Italy August current account
1100 Canada September consumer price index (0.0% m/m)
1100 Canada September consumer price index (-0.8% y/y)
1100 Canada Bank of Canada consumer price index, core (0.1% m/m)
1100 Canada Bank of Canada consumer price index, core (1.6% y/y)
1300 US August net long-term TIC flows (US$ 15.3 billion)
1300 US August total net TIC flows (-US$ 97.5 billion)
1315 US September industrial production (0.8%)
1315 US September capacity utilization (69.6%)
1400 US October University of Michigan consumer sentiment
DISCLAIMER: GCI’s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.
